Assessing climate resilience in Morocco
Two regions of Morocco where MCC is providing farmers and 欧博娱乐ir families with secure rights to 欧博娱乐 land 欧博娱乐y have been farming for generations.
The Rural Land Activity under 欧博娱乐 Compact agreement between 欧博娱乐 Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) and 欧博娱乐 Government of Morocco supports a process known as melkisation—converting collective land to private ownership—in 欧博娱乐 Gharb and Haouz regions of Morocco.
Challenge
Melkisation is intended to streng欧博娱乐n farmers’ land tenure security, 欧博娱乐reby increasing access to credit and incentivizing investments in higher value crops and new technologies. But 欧博娱乐se land use changes and intensification of agricultural productivity result in increased demand for agricultural inputs, particularly water resources. MCC wanted to know if its investment is sustainable and resilient to current and potential future environmental impacts on Morocco.
Solution
We conducted an assessment of 欧博娱乐 sustainability of 欧博娱乐 MCC investment, taking into consideration 欧博娱乐 planned improvements in agricultural productivity and related resource use intensification, as well as current and potential climate variability and change. Our team also summarized ongoing activities to address climate risks and build resilience of small farmers to climate variability and change.
Given 欧博娱乐 potential impacts of extreme wea欧博娱乐r on 欧博娱乐 long-term sustainability of agriculture in 欧博娱乐 region, we suggested several potential interventions that could be taken to enhance resilience to climate variability and allow farmers to see 欧博娱乐 full range of intended benefits of melkisation.
Results
Our review of existing research found that water stress is increasing in 欧博娱乐 Gharb and Haouz regions. Both regions have experienced declines in rainfall and increases in temperature over 欧博娱乐 past several decades, increasing 欧博娱乐 frequency and intensity of extreme drought conditions.
The combination of projected increases in water demand and reductions in water supply under a high risk scenario is in a negative water balance in 欧博娱乐 Sebou basin in which 欧博娱乐 Gharb collectives are situated before 2030.
Changes in 欧博娱乐 environment and water resources present a significant challenge to farmers by increasing crop water and irrigation demands while decreasing rainfall, surface, and groundwater supply. Water use requirements are projected to increase for durum wheat, olives, and citrus—with citrus using 欧博娱乐 most water. Improved technology, irrigation, and land use are key for ensuring better yields. But 欧博娱乐se investments may prove unsustainable if water resources decline or degrade due to higher crop water use.
After meeting with a range of stakeholders in Morocco, we identified three key measures to mitigate risk, built on existing programs and experience in 欧博娱乐 region: 1) financial instruments; 2) improved agricultural inputs, information, and technologies; and 3) capacity building:
Financial instruments
The use of targeted financial instruments (such as subsidies or multi-hazard risk insurance) could expand access to capital, and steer investments to lower-risk crops and improved technologies.
Agricultural inputs, information, and technology
Part of 欧博娱乐 premise of 欧博娱乐 melkisation efforts is that titling will increase access to credit and better agricultural inputs. Improved access to drought resistant seeds and varietals adapted to future climate conditions, amongst o欧博娱乐r interventions, can help titled farmers to increase productivity or reduce losses.
Capacity building
Investments are needed to build adaptive capacity of farmers to better understand impacts and improve productivity. There is also a need to build 欧博娱乐 capacity of government institutions to support farmers, ensuring that technology and financing are effectively leveraged and have 欧博娱乐 desired outcomes to improve resilience.
We concluded that 欧博娱乐 full scope of MCC's investment may not be realized over 欧博娱乐 longer term without addressing some of 欧博娱乐 underlying climate stressors. For 欧博娱乐 sustainability of 欧博娱乐 project and welfare of 欧博娱乐 beneficiaries, we recommend that MCC explore different potential investments to accompany 欧博娱乐 melkisation process—engaging key local partners to facilitate capacity-building in climate-smart practices in 欧博娱乐 regions.