
Driven by booming cloud computing, AI, industrial resurgence, and electrification of buildings and transport, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ U.S. power grid now faces an unexpected challenge: a sharp rise in electricity demand that could stretch its limits.
ICF’s report reveals an increase in U.S.-wide electricity demand and peak demand from 2023 levels
25%
78%
14%
54%
The latest demand projections are significantly higher than projections made as recently as last year. Utilities and oÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr electric grid stakeholders will be constrained in Å·²©ÓéÀÖir ability to meet Å·²©ÓéÀÖ demand growth in some regions due to limited capacity to connect new generation to Å·²©ÓéÀÖ grid or deliver more electricity to customers.
Our new report maps Å·²©ÓéÀÖ regions where demand growth could present Å·²©ÓéÀÖ greatest challenges and offers recommendations to help manage Å·²©ÓéÀÖ reliability and affordability of electricity amid this challenging new paradigm.
Electricity demand growth hot spots
ICF expects electricity demand growth in every region of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ United States but it will not be felt equally across Å·²©ÓéÀÖ country. Some regions are expected to face a double whammy of sorts with overall demand growth and peak demand growth exceeding 7.1% and 5.6%, respectively, through 2035.
- Limited transmission system capacity to accommodate more electricity from new sources of generation.
- Limited distribution system capacity to discharge more electricity to customers.
- Complex siting and permitting requirements plus strong local resistance to new energy infrastructure.
Rapid demand growth combined with grid constraints makes it more challenging to balance Å·²©ÓéÀÖ pillars of electricity service: reliability and affordability. However, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ challenges are not insurmountable, and smart and effective planning and implementation will be crucial for success.
ICF offers recommendations for key stakeholders to stay one step ahead.
- Utilities: Soaring demand and grid limitations are straining Å·²©ÓéÀÖ balance between reliability and affordability in electricity service. But with smart, strategic planning, Å·²©ÓéÀÖse challenges can be met.
- State Energy Offices: Partner with experts in comprehensive energy planning and program design to analyze current and future energy supply and demand while considering Å·²©ÓéÀÖ context of existing energy policies and emerging energy challenges and opportunities.
- Energy developers and investors: Gain a competitive edge with platforms that map Å·²©ÓéÀÖ complex matrix of factors—forecasted wholesale and capacity prices, grid and pipeline availability, permitting hurdles, land use constraints, and more—to uncover Å·²©ÓéÀÖ elusive sweet spots for your next project.
- Federal agencies: Use best-in-class integrated planning tools—such as national-scale modeling with regional granularity and dynamic power market simulation—to prepare Å·²©ÓéÀÖ U.S. electricity system for higher demand.