
Exploring Å·²©ÓéÀÖ ramp-up of hydrogen production in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EU
In cooperation with and , ICF is carrying out a study for Å·²©ÓéÀÖ European Commission to analyse Å·²©ÓéÀÖ potential ramp-up of renewable hydrogen production in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ European Union and in third countries. This study will identify potential bottlenecks for Å·²©ÓéÀÖ achievement of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ European targets for renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO) and Å·²©ÓéÀÖ objectives Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EU aims to achieve by supporting renewable hydrogen production.
Context
Renewable hydrogen represents a strategic opportunity to decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors, and hard-to-electrify sectors in particular. Ramping up renewable hydrogen production aims to support Å·²©ÓéÀÖ achievement of EU climate objectives by 2050, as part of an integrated energy system.
The EU has deployed important efforts to support renewable hydrogen viability, including Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EU Hydrogen Bank, to support Å·²©ÓéÀÖ supply of renewable hydrogen. This also supports demand-side interventions such as Å·²©ÓéÀÖ mandatory 42.5% renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO) share in industry by 2030 under Å·²©ÓéÀÖ , and mandates for RFNBOs under and regulations.
This supporting policy environment has translated into a steep growth in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ announcement of new renewable hydrogen projects, with Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EU accounting for Å·²©ÓéÀÖ largest share of globally announced capacity by 2030. However, as a nascent industry, renewable hydrogen production faces numerous challenges, such as simultaneously scaling up supply, demand, and infrastructure. The 2025 report entitled “” accepted by Nature Energy, states that in 2022 only 0.62 GW of electrolysis capacity was operational on time, instead of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ 2.8 GW initially announced. Similarly, in 2023, of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ 7.1 GW initially announced, only an estimated 0.92 GW became operational.
The lays out Å·²©ÓéÀÖ European Commission’s vision for hydrogen and its role as an energy carrier in a European integrated energy system. The Strategy considers hydrogen as ‘essential to support Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EU’s commitment to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 and for Å·²©ÓéÀÖ global effort to implement Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Paris Agreement while working towards zero pollution.’ It also places it as ‘a key priority to achieve Å·²©ÓéÀÖ European Green Deal and Europe’s clean energy transition.’
Key statistics from Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EU Hydrogen strategy under Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EU Green Deal and Å·²©ÓéÀÖ
40 GW
Phase 2: (2025 - 2030)
A target of�40 GW of renewable hydrogen electrolyser capacity by 2030.
80-120 GW
Phase 3: (2030 – 2050)
Renewable hydrogen technologies should reach maturity and be deployed at large scaleâ€�to reach all hard-to-decarbonise sectors where oÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr alternatives might not be feasible or have higher costs.
The renewable energy generation required to reach renewable hydrogen production targets would amount to 80-120 GW.
42.5%
of hydrogen used in industry should come from RFNBOs by 2030 and 60% by 2035.
Study Overview
The objective of this study is to support Å·²©ÓéÀÖ European Commission in monitoring Å·²©ÓéÀÖ ramp-up of hydrogen production in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EU and in third countries, assess Å·²©ÓéÀÖ effectiveness of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ hydrogen framework, and identify possible barriers to Å·²©ÓéÀÖ upscaling of renewable hydrogen.
The study will provide a detailed overview of renewable hydrogen production in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EU and third countries at both project and Member State levels. This will help assess Å·²©ÓéÀÖ capacity of Member States to positively contribute towards Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EU energy and emissions objectives. The assessment of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ hydrogen framework will support Å·²©ÓéÀÖ review of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Delegated Act on RFNBOs.
The study is structured around three main tasks, each comprising several subtasks, and is guided by a comprehensive stakeholder engagement approach. The two technical tasks are outlined in greater detail below.
Where we are now
The project started in May 2025 and will culminate with Å·²©ÓéÀÖ submission of its final report in July 2028. Three interim reports will be delivered over Å·²©ÓéÀÖ course of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ project. Two key planned stakeholder workshops will also be conducted over Å·²©ÓéÀÖ course of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ project.
Please do not hesitate to contact us should you have any questions about this study. Send Å·²©ÓéÀÖ project team an email and we endeavour to respond quickly to your enquiry.
Funded by Å·²©ÓéÀÖ European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ European Union. The European Union cannot be held responsible for Å·²©ÓéÀÖm.